Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Biggio singled to right, Schneider scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Schneider doubled to left, Jansen scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Betts singled to center, Rojas scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Ohtani singled to right, Pages scored, Taylor to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Taylor singled to center, E. Hernández scored, Pages to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Betts scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +25 | −1 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +47 Elo | LAD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–10–1 | 11–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.