Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses singled to center, Abrams scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Freeman doubled to left, Betts scored.2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2T. Hernández homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -185 / WSH +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +5 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +32 Elo | LAD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 4–723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–9–1 | 9–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–4 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.