Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Nick SenzelBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman singled to center, Betts scored and Ohtani scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Ohtani doubled to left, Pages scored, Betts to third.9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8Ohtani doubled to right, Betts scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pages homered to left (375 feet).7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Lux singled to right, Smith scored and Muncy scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Muncy singled to right, Smith scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Meneses walked, Lipscomb scored, Winker to second, Abrams to third.3–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 43–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Senzel homered to center (402 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Betts singled to center, Lux scored and Pages scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -180 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +6 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–14 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9–1 | 8–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.