Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to right center (450 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Rojas singled to right, Outman scored, Rojas to second.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Outman doubled to right, T. Hernández scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6E. Hernández singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Young reached on bunt single to first, Vargas scored, L. García Jr. to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -222 / WSH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.7%, market 65.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -193
- WSH +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −9 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +54 Elo | LAD 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–14 | 13–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8–1 | 8–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.