Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored.12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Guerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Biggio scored.11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–2
- 6Pages hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored.11–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 210–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 6Muncy reached on infield single to second, Smith scored on throwing error by second baseman Biggio, Muncy to second.10–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 5Betts doubled to left, Pages scored.9–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Jansen homered to left (382 feet).8–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 38–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 18–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 4Smith homered to left (360 feet).8–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Lux singled to right, T. Hernández scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 3Muncy homered to right (366 feet), Freeman scored and Smith scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −1 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 6–34th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–10–1 | 10–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.