Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonathan BowlanPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fermin homered to left (374 feet).5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 6Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Barger scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Isbel homered to center (406 feet).4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Schneider singled to center, Varsho scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Isbel singled to right, Fermin scored, Renfroe to third.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Jansen homered to left center (395 feet).2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Turner homered to left (368 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Turner homered to left (343 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Massey reached on infield single to shortstop, Velázquez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Velázquez doubled to third, Witt Jr. scored on error, Velázquez safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Barger.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML KC +140 / TOR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- KC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +5 | KC: Jonathan Bowlan: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–58th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–11 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–18–1 | 11–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–7 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.