Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman homered to center (425 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Kirk homered to right (362 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Kiner-Falefa grounded out to third, Schneider scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Varsho grounded out to first, Turner scored, Schneider to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML LAD -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 45.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–3 | Road vs home | 6–511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–11–1 | 11–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.