Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras homered to center (415 feet), Carter scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 8Carter singled to center, Smith scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Semien scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Smith homered to right (364 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Seager grounded out to pitcher, Semien scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Heim singled to left, Lowe scored, García to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1L. García Jr. singled to left, Abrams scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML WSH +135 / TEX -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 60.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TEX -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +75 Elo | TEX 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 8–813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–10 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15–1 | 12–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.