Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez homered to center (405 feet), Bethancourt scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Bethancourt singled to center, Bruján scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–1
- 9Senzel grounded out to shortstop, Lipscomb scored.11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 7Abrams tripled to right, Young scored.10–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 7Senzel homered to left (409 feet).9–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Ruiz homered to left (380 feet).8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Winker reached on infield single to third, Young scored on throwing error by third baseman Bruján.7–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 36–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Winker homered to right (391 feet), Senzel scored, Young scored and Abrams scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Young grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rosario scored, Senzel third.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML WSH +120 / MIA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +14 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +13 Elo | MIA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.828th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 2–1230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–10 | 8–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–10 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–15–1 | 13–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–11 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.