Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Vidal BrujanBatting2-3
- Anthony MaldonadoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses singled to center, Abrams scored and Lipscomb scored, Winker to second.3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Meneses grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Young scored, Winker out at second, Abrams to third.1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Fortes singled to right, Bruján scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML WSH +105 / MIA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Anthony Maldonado (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +26 Elo | MIA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 2–1130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–10 | 8–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14–1 | 13–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–11 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.