Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Davis WendzelBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith doubled to right, Lowe scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Seager homered to right (396 feet).8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 9Wendzel homered to left center (408 feet), Taveras scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8Martini hit sacrifice fly to left, Maile scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 7Benson homered to right (382 feet), Martini scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 7India homered to right (341 feet), Stephenson scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4India singled to left, Encarnacion-Strand scored, India to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Martini hit sacrifice fly to center, Fraley scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2India singled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Stephenson to second, Fraley to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML CIN +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +67 Elo | TEX 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 7–715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–12 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11–1 | 11–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–1 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.