Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Reds- Nick MartiniBatting1-4
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Stott singled to right, Marsh scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Harper homered to right center (384 feet), Turner scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to left, Stott scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Stott tripled to right, Castellanos scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -185 / CIN +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- CIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 3.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +12 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +9 Elo | CIN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 9–69th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–14 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 10–7 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14–1 | 14–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–7 CIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.