Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Reds- Stuart FairchildBatting1-4
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens homered to right center (391 feet), Castellanos scored and Stott scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Realmuto doubled to left, Schwarber scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Stott grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bohm scored, Castellanos out at second.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Stott hit sacrifice fly to right, Bohm scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML PHI -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 45.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −3 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 7–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–12 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.