Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Espinal hit sacrifice fly to right, Thompson scored, Stephenson to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Merrifield doubled to right, Turner scored, Castellanos to third.4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6De La Cruz hit a ground rule double, Fairchild scored, Benson to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Benson singled to center, Espinal scored on error, Fairchild to second, Fairchild safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Rojas.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Espinal singled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored and Stephenson scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Rojas singled to left, Merrifield scored, Sosa to second.3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Benson homered to center (396 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Bohm doubled to left, Schwarber scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bohm singled to right, Turner scored, Bohm thrown out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML PHI -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +15 | PHI: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 8–69th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–13 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14–1 | 13–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–6 CIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.