Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Espinal homered to left (366 feet).1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 5De La Cruz homered to left center (394 feet), Encarnacion-Strand scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Espinal singled to center, Martini scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Encarnacion-Strand scored on error and De La Cruz scored on error, Martini safe at first on error by first baseman Bohm, Martini safe at second on error.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Encarnacion-Strand singled to left, Stephenson scored on error, Encarnacion-Strand safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Pache.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Encarnacion-Strand doubled to right, Steer scored, Candelario to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Bohm doubled to left, Realmuto scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / CIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +9 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +1 Elo | CIN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 7–611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–12 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.