Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Semien homered to left (392 feet).1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Carter homered to right center (404 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1De La Cruz stole home, Steer stole second, Steer safe at third on throwing error by catcher Heim.1–0
- 1De La Cruz stole home, Steer stole second, Steer safe at third on throwing error by catcher Heim.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML CIN +135 / TEX -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 60.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TEX -143
- CIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +8 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +72 Elo | TEX 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 6–717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–12 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10–1 | 11–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–0 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.