Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Steer reached on infield single to shortstop, Benson scored and De La Cruz scored on throwing error by shortstop Seager.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Benson singled to right, Maile scored on error, Benson safe at second on fielding error by right fielder García.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Langford inside-the-park home run to right center (378 feet), Heim scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1García homered to left (388 feet), Lowe scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML CIN +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +41 Elo | TEX 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 7–816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–11–1 | 12–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–1 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.