Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nick SenzelBatting2-6, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young singled to left, Call scored.12–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–9
- 8Lipscomb scored on Hoeing wild pitch, Call to third on wild pitch by Hoeing.11–9
- 8Lipscomb scored on Hoeing wild pitch, Call to third on wild pitch by Hoeing.11–9
- 7J. Sánchez singled to right, Anderson scored.10–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 210–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–8
- 7Anderson doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.10–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–7
- 6Vargas stole home, Lipscomb stole second.10–7
- 6Vargas stole home, Lipscomb stole second.10–7
- 5Senzel homered to center (411 feet), Call scored and Young scored.9–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 5Young singled to right, Lipscomb scored, Call to second, Call safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Myers.6–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 4Senzel homered to center (404 feet), Abrams scored.5–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 4Abrams doubled to right, Call scored and Young scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Young doubled to left, Lipscomb scored, Call to third.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Rivera doubled to right, De La Cruz scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.0–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 1Fortes singled to center, Bruján scored.0–6
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Bruján tripled to right, Myers scored.0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML WSH +115 / MIA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +19 Elo | MIA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 2–1330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–10 | 8–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–11 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15–1 | 14–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–11 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.