Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vargas singled to left, Meneses scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Meneses hit a ground rule double, Winker scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Abrams scored on Nardi wild pitch, Winker to third on wild pitch by Nardi.5–2
- 7Abrams scored on Nardi wild pitch, Winker to third on wild pitch by Nardi.5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Winker grounded into fielder's choice to second, Young scored, Senzel out at second, Abrams to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Chisholm Jr. homered to center (414 feet), Bruján scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Winker walked, Young scored, Senzel to second, Abrams to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 43–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Abrams homered to right (370 feet), Call scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML WSH +115 / MIA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +12 Elo | MIA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 10th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 2–1430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–10 | 8–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–12 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15–1 | 15–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–11 MIA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.