Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jankowski singled to right, Heim scored and Smith scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 8Heim singled to center, Lowe scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Semien singled to left, Duran scored, Carter to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Carter reached on infield single to second, Smith scored, Duran to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Duran doubled to left, Heim scored, Smith to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 64%
- ML WSH +165 / TEX -195
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 60.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -175
- WSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +11 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +70 Elo | TEX 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 9–913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–11 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16–1 | 13–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.