Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nick SenzelBatting2-4
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-5
- Andrew HeaneyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 2Call singled to left, Vargas scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 64%
- ML WSH +170 / TEX -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.0%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -180
- WSH +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −20 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +56 Elo | TEX 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 9–814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–11 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15–1 | 13–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.