Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Massey homered to right (357 feet), Witt Jr. scored and Pasquantino scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Jansen homered to left (364 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Massey grounded out to second, Pasquantino scored, Perez to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 6Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML KC +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −13 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–8 | Road vs home | 8–69th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–11 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–19–1 | 12–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–8 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.