Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses singled to center, Abrams scored, Senzel to second.3–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8L. García Jr. scored on error, Abrams safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Clement.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Winker lined out to second, Call scored on throwing error by second baseman Kiner-Falefa and Adams scored on error, L. García Jr. safe at third on error.3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Senzel doubled to left, Winker scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7L. García Jr. homered to center (402 feet), Vargas scored and Adams scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Abrams singled to right, Young scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Springer hit sacrifice fly to left, Varsho scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Varsho doubled to right, Jansen scored and Schneider scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML TOR -145 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.9%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -127
- WSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.5 – 2.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 4.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +27 Elo | TOR 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.820th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–10 | Road vs home | 4–827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19–1 | 13–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.