Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9L. García Jr. singled to right, Lipscomb scored, Abrams to second.6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Kiermaier homered to center (390 feet), Jansen scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Senzel singled to center, Call scored, Lipscomb to second.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Abrams hit sacrifice fly to center, Rosario scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Jansen doubled to center, Bichette scored, Vogelbach to third.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Vogelbach grounded into fielder's choice to first, Guerrero Jr. scored and Turner scored on throwing error by first baseman Lipscomb, Bichette safe at third on error.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Turner singled to center, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML TOR -150 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -138
- WSH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 5–825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 20–12 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19–1 | 14–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.