San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-4
- Mason BlackPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to right (375 feet).1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 6Flores hit sacrifice fly to center, Estrada scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Castellanos doubled to center, Marsh scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Harper homered to left center (381 feet), Schwarber scored and Realmuto scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Merrifield singled to left, Castellanos scored, Stott to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML SF +200 / PHI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -212
- SF +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | SF: Mason Black (no track record yet) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +96 Elo | PHI 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 26th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17–1 | 16–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–5 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.