San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Josh WinckowskiPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ahmed hit sacrifice fly to left, Chapman scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Estrada singled to right, Bailey scored, Chapman to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3O'Neill doubled to left, Devers scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Yastrzemski homered to right center (393 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML SF +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +15 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Josh Winckowski: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +61 Elo | BOS 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–16 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15–1 | 13–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.