Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Triolo singled to left, Tellez scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Triolo grounded out to shortstop, Olivares scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Wade Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Fitzgerald scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Yastrzemski homered to center (402 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Estrada homered to left center (397 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML PIT -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SF: Elo 51.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +7 Elo | SF 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 8–713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 14–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.