Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Soler homered to left center (433 feet), Bailey scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 10Hayes homered to left center (377 feet).4–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 10Reynolds homered to left (387 feet), Williams scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Tellez hit sacrifice fly to left, Joe scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Flores doubled to center, Ahmed scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -118
- PIT +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +17 Elo | SF 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 8–68th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 14–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–5 SF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.