San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tom MurphyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Daulton JefferiesPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wong doubled to center, Abreu scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Smith singled to center, Refsnyder scored, Wong to second.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Duran tripled to right, Valdez scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Valdez doubled to left, Wong scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Yastrzemski reached on bunt single to third, Conforto scored, Estrada to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Refsnyder grounded out to shortstop, Duran scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Devers doubled to left, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Murphy homered to left (407 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML SF +140 / BOS -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | SF: Erik Miller (no track record yet) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +43 Elo | BOS 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14–1 | 13–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.