San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-2
- Logan WebbPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Abreu tripled to right, Duran scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Refsnyder singled to right, Abreu scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Duran singled to center, McGuire scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Refsnyder singled to center, O'Neill scored, Abreu to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -130 / BOS +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- SF: Elo 44.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +16 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +42 Elo | BOS 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 5–822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13–1 | 13–14–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.