San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch WhitePitching2.1 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Phillies- Whit MerrifieldBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrifield homered to left (373 feet).3–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–14
- 6Schwarber singled to right, Sosa scored and Rojas scored.3–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–11
- 6Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Castellanos scored and Stott scored on fielding error by third baseman Chapman, Rojas second, Sosa safe at third on error.3–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 5Flores homered to left center (379 feet), Estrada scored.3–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 3Estrada singled to right, Ahmed scored, Slater to second.1–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 2Sosa grounded out to pitcher, Castellanos scored, Stott to second.0–9
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 2Stott singled to right, Bohm scored, Castellanos to third.0–8
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Castellanos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Harper scored, Marsh out at second, Bohm to third.0–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 2Realmuto scored on White wild pitch.0–6
- 2Realmuto scored on White wild pitch.0–6
- 1Rojas singled to left, Stott scored, Sosa to second.0–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML SF +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +20 | SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +97 Elo | PHI 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 11–65th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–16 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17–1 | 14–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.