Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm hit sacrifice fly to left, Turner scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Adrianza scored on Domínguez wild pitch and Trout scored on throwing error by catcher Stubbs.4–6
- 7Adrianza scored on Domínguez wild pitch and Trout scored on throwing error by catcher Stubbs.4–6
- 6Tucker singled to center, Drury scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6O'Hoppe grounded out to second, Ward scored, Drury to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Schwarber scored on a disengagement violation, Turner to second on a disengagement violation.4–2
- 5Schwarber scored on a disengagement violation, Turner to second on a disengagement violation.4–2
- 2Adrianza singled to right, Rengifo scored, Adrianza thrown out at first, Tucker to third.3–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Adell homered to left (373 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Harper to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML PHI -150 / LAA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -138
- LAA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −7 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +49 Elo | PHI 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–4 | Road vs home | 3–929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16–1 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.