Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Padres- Eguy RosarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario homered to left (404 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Bohm singled to right, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Harper to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Harper walked, Merrifield scored, Turner to second, Schwarber to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 43–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bohm homered to left center (398 feet), Turner scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML PHI -105 / SD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- SD: Elo 47.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +2 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 6–818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–14 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15–1 | 16–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–2 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.