Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Padres- Graham PauleyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pauley homered to center (419 feet), Campusano scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 7Realmuto homered to left (359 feet), Bohm scored.9–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4Bohm singled to left, Turner scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 3Cronenworth doubled to left, Azocar scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Castellanos homered to left center (398 feet).6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3Marsh homered to right (385 feet), Realmuto scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Harper homered to right (396 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Marsh doubled to right, Bohm scored, Realmuto to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (379 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +1 Elo | PHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 6–718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15–1 | 15–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–2 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.