Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rojas hit a ground rule double, Stott scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 27–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 7Campusano homered to left center (397 feet), Kim scored and Pauley scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Realmuto singled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper thrown out at third.7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 6Realmuto homered to left center (421 feet), Bohm scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Stott homered to right center (396 feet), Castellanos scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Cronenworth homered to right (398 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Profar scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Stott homered to right center (395 feet), Castellanos scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML PHI +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SD: Elo 50.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +1 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +4 Elo | SD 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 6–922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16–1 | 16–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–2 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.