San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soler grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ahmed scored, Wade Jr. out at second, Lee to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Harper walked, Turner scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 42–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Marsh singled to center, Bohm scored and Harper scored, Realmuto to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Estrada doubled to center, Chapman scored and Bailey scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML SF +155 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.4%, market 62.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -164
- SF +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +88 Elo | PHI 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 10–66th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16–1 | 14–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.