Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Ehire AdrianzaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 2Adrianza homered to right center (381 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Schwarber singled to center, Merrifield scored and Realmuto scored, Pache to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML PHI -225 / LAA +190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.1%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -201
- LAA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 3.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −12 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +71 Elo | PHI 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 4–1029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–15 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16–1 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.