San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reetz homered to left (393 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Estrada homered to left center (401 feet), Yastrzemski scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Stott doubled to left, Castellanos scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Harper homered to center (410 feet), Schwarber scored and Realmuto scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Sosa reached on infield single to second, Bohm scored, Stott to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Conforto doubled to left, Wade Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML SF -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −13 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +61 Elo | PHI 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 12–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–17 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17–1 | 15–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.