Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting2-3
- Jose BerriosPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Clemens grounded out to third, Sosa scored.1–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 8Sosa tripled to center, Stott scored.1–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 7Kiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop, Jansen scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Harper homered to right (360 feet), Clemens scored, Stubbs scored and Schwarber scored.0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Clemens tripled to center, Sosa scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Clemens homered to right (383 feet), Stott scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML TOR +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −19 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–12 | Road vs home | 14–63rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19–1 | 16–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.