Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Bichette scored, Biggio to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 9Kepler singled to right, Correa scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Santana homered to right (342 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Kiner-Falefa homered to left center (365 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Miranda singled to right, Correa scored, Castro to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML MIN +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +14 Elo | MIN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 8–713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–17 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18 | 16–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Oct 4TOR 0 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Hit
- Oct 3TOR 1 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Hit
- Jun 11MIN 6 @ TOR 7Picked TOR 53%Hit
- Jun 10MIN 9 @ TOR 4Picked TOR 53%Miss
- Jun 9MIN 3 @ TOR 2Picked TOR 54%Miss
- May 28TOR 3 @ MIN 0Picked MIN 53%Miss
- May 27TOR 7 @ MIN 9Picked MIN 52%Hit
- May 26TOR 3 @ MIN 1Picked MIN 53%Miss