Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers homered to right (407 feet), Duran scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 8Larnach singled to center, Kepler scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Smith doubled to left, Abreu scored and Grissom scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 37–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 8Grissom doubled to center, Devers scored and O'Neill scored, Abreu to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Rafaela homered to left center (398 feet), McGuire scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Refsnyder doubled to third, Duran scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Jeffers homered to left center (385 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML BOS +160 / MIN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- BOS +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +5 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 8–610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19–2 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–5 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.