Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Greg WeissertPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Correa hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Kepler homered to right center (405 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Correa grounded out to third, Miranda scored, Castro to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Abreu singled to left, O'Neill scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML BOS +155 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +45 Elo | MIN 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 7–611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–16 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18–2 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.