Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devers doubled to center, Duran scored and McGuire scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 7Jeffers doubled to center, Miranda scored and Kirilloff scored, Julien to third.0–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Julien walked, Castro scored, Kirilloff to second, Miranda to third.0–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 40–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 7Castro grounded into fielder's choice to catcher, Martin scored on throwing error by catcher McGuire, Santana to second.0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Julien singled to left, Castro scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML BOS +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +30 Elo | MIN 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 6–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–15 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17–2 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.