Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Margot singled to center, Castro scored, Santana to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Correa scored, Castro to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Garver hit sacrifice fly to center, Polanco scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Correa doubled to center, Kepler scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -125 / MIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 13th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 8–712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–24–2 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–3 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.