Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9France singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Garver to second.10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 9Rojas scored on Alcala wild pitch, Rodríguez to third on wild pitch by Alcala.9–6
- 9Rojas scored on Alcala wild pitch, Rodríguez to third on wild pitch by Alcala.9–6
- 9Haniger hit sacrifice fly to right, Raleigh scored, Rojas to third.8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Rojas singled to center, Moore scored, Raleigh to second.7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 8Martin reached on infield single to first, Kepler scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Farmer doubled to center, Miranda scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Raleigh homered to left (445 feet), Garver scored, Urías scored and Moore scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Jeffers homered to left (416 feet), Julien scored and Larnach scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Larnach singled to right, Miranda scored, Julien to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Moore doubled to center, Urías scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Haniger homered to left center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML SEA +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −4 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 14th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–25–2 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.