Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schneider hit sacrifice fly to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.8–10
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball In Play8–10
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 38–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–9
- 7Clement singled to center, Jansen scored, Springer to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.8–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Biggio scored and Schneider scored, Varsho to third.8–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 5Jansen homered to left (376 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.8–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 5Schneider homered to left (360 feet).8–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 4Jeffers homered to left center (392 feet).8–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Varsho scored.7–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 3Varsho doubled to right, Schneider scored.7–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML MIN +125 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- MIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +24 Elo | MIN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 8–815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–17 | 17–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 16–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- May 10MIN 3 @ TOR 2Picked TOR 52%Miss
- Oct 4TOR 0 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Hit
- Oct 3TOR 1 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Hit
- Jun 11MIN 6 @ TOR 7Picked TOR 53%Hit
- Jun 10MIN 9 @ TOR 4Picked TOR 53%Miss
- Jun 9MIN 3 @ TOR 2Picked TOR 54%Miss
- May 28TOR 3 @ MIN 0Picked MIN 53%Miss
- May 27TOR 7 @ MIN 9Picked MIN 52%Hit