New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Wells singled to right, Torres scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Rizzo grounded out to first, Verdugo scored, Torres to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Torres doubled to center, Judge scored, Verdugo to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Volpe homered to left center (385 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML NYY +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +7 Elo | MIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–9 | Road vs home | 11–1013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–21 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24–1 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–4 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.