New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-4
- Pablo LopezPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Judge doubled to center, Soto scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Stanton singled to left, Judge scored, Verdugo to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Judge homered to left (467 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML NYY +120 / MIN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -128
- NYY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 11–911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–21 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23–1 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.