Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yerry RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Giménez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rocchio scored, Freeman to third.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8Smith singled to center, García scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Lowe homered to right (349 feet).6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Seager homered to right (362 feet).6–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 2García homered to left (346 feet).6–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 2J. Naylor homered to right (371 feet), Freeman scored and Giménez scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Giménez singled to center, Bo Naylor scored, Freeman to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Bo Naylor doubled to center, Florial scored and Manzardo scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML CLE +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −18 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +22 Elo | TEX 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 10–1014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–15 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19–2 | 18–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.