Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday doubled to left, Toro scored.12–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–10
- 9Toro singled to right, Schuemann scored.12–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–9
- 9Harris hit sacrifice fly to right, Davis scored, Schuemann to third.12–9
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play12–9
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul12–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 312–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 212–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–8
- 9Langeliers scored on a balk, Schuemann to second on a balk, Davis to third on a balk.12–8
- 9Langeliers scored on a balk, Schuemann to second on a balk, Davis to third on a balk.12–8
- 9Langeliers scored on a balk, Schuemann to second on a balk, Davis to third on a balk.12–8
- 9Lowe singled to center, Taveras scored, Carter to second.12–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–7
- 9Carter singled to right, Duran scored, Taveras to second.11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–7
- 8Bleday grounded out to first, Harris scored, Toro to third.10–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 210–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 110–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 8Heim singled to left, Smith scored, Heim to second.10–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML TEX -150 / OAK +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -138
- OAK +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −18 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OAK: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +90 Elo | TEX 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 10–1219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–20 | 21–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21–1 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–7 OAK in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.